Spat collection of the pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera in atoll lagoons of French Polynesia is the fundamental sustain of black pearl farming. Spat collection has always yielded variable results in space and time, but obvious signs of steady decreases, even collapses, have emerged in several lagoons. Spat collection materializes the ecological connectivity pathways between wild spawning populations and the location of artificial larval settlement substrates. To assess if oyster larval dispersal modelling could capture such pathways, we compared four six-week long spat collector deployment periods with dispersal simulations in two different lagoons. Spat collectors displayed wide spatial and temporal variations. Numerical modelling and field experiments were generally not in agreement. Although both methods have limitations, they can still approximate each other. But the accuracy of model simulations cannot be ascertained with spat collection data only. Using a SWOT (StrengthWeakness-Opportunities-Threats) analysis, we emphasize the complementarity of both approaches for management decisions.