A bio-economic evaluation of the potential for establishing a commercial fishery on two newly developed stocks: The Ionian red shrimp fishery

Abstract : It has recently been shown that two deep-water red shrimp species (Aristeus antennatus and Aristaeomorpha foliacea) have the potential to support a viable fishery in the Greek Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean). In this article, we investigate (i) the evolution that this newly developed trawl shrimp fishery may undergo when subjected to different management measures, and (ii) the most suitable extraction rates considering the uncertainties about the resource. We further analyse the effects that potential future fuel price increases and changes in the market may have on the fishery. Forecasting the biological and economic consequences of management actions, as well as the effects of market changes on inputs and outputs before they are applied, may help managers select the most suitable management options. We approach the problem by means of bio-economic simulation analysis. The results of this study show that fishing effort can increase by 50-100%, increasing the fleet's profitability without jeopardizing the sustainability of the fishery.