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Journal Articles Journal of Applied Ecology Year : 2024

A Bayesian analysis of adaptation of mountain grassland production to global change

Abstract

In mountains, grasslands managed for livestock production sustain local economies, culture and identity. However, their future fodder production is highly uncertain under climate change: While an extended growing season may be beneficial, more frequent and intense summer droughts could also reduce fodder quantity and quality. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are another major driver of grassland biomass production, but combined effects of future land use transitions and climate change are rarely quantified. 2. We modelled combined climate and LULC scenarios for grassland production of the Maurienne Valley (French Alps) by 2085. We built a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) from long-term grassland production monitoring data complemented with expert knowledge. We assessed the potential of two candidate adaptations, intensification as an incremental solution and silvopastoralism as a transformative solution to compensate combined impacts of two climate scenarios and three land use change scenarios. 3. Total biomass production was far more sensitive to LULC than to climate sce narios. Production losses were largest under the conservation LULC scenario (−28% on average between 2020 and 2085), followed by the tourism development scenario (−7%) and the business-as-usual scenario (+3%). Climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 altered the seasonality of production by increasing potential production from May to July while decreasing summer regrowth. 4. Synthesis and applications: Changes in LULC are more decisive for global biomass production than climate change. However, under the most extreme climatechange scenario (RCP8.5), the seasonal shift in production and increased interannual variability threaten the current grass-based protected designation of origin (PDO) production system. Only the intensification adaptation solution showed significant gains in total biomass production. Still, the silvopastoralism would require less investment compared to the intensification and have a similar efficiency
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hal-04641908 , version 1 (09-07-2024)

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Nicolas Elleaume, Bruno Locatelli, Johan Oszwald, Emilie Crouzat, Sandra Lavorel. A Bayesian analysis of adaptation of mountain grassland production to global change. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2024, 61, pp.1426 - 1440. ⟨10.1111/1365-2664.14655⟩. ⟨hal-04641908⟩
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